The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change

Protected areas are the backbone of biodiversity conservation but vulnerable to climate change. Thailand has a large and well-planned protected area system, covering most remaining natural vegetation. A statistically derived global environmental stratification (GEnS) was used predict changes in bioclimatic conditions across system for 2050 2070, based on projections from three CMIP5 earth models two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Five zones were identified composed 28 strata. Substantial spatial reorganization bioclimates is projected next 50 years, even under RCP2.6, while RCP8.5 average upward shift all by 2070 328–483 m coolest zone disappears with models. Overall, 7.9–31.0% Thailand’s land will change 31.7–90.2% stratum. The consequences less clear, particularly lowlands where existing vegetation mosaic determined largely factors other than climate. Increasing connectivity along temperature rainfall gradients would allow species migrate response change, this be difficult much Thailand. For isolated that cannot move fast enough, more active, species-specific interventions may necessary.